| Factor | Federal Reserve | Bank of Japan |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Goal | Price stability (2% inflation) | Price stability + growth |
| Policy Tools | Fed Funds Rate, QT/QE | Policy rate, YCC, QE |
| Rate Level 2025 | Higher (cutting cycle) | Near zero (hiking slowly) |
| Currency Effect | High rates โ USD strong | Low rates โ JPY weak |
| Event | Expected Impact on USD/JPY | Trader Action |
|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut (larger than expected) | USD/JPY falls sharply | Short USD/JPY on surprise cuts |
| BOJ rate hike (surprise) | USD/JPY falls sharply | Watch BOJ press conferences |
| US inflation data (higher than expected) | USD/JPY rises | Buy USD/JPY on hot CPI |
| Japan inflation normalizes | Gradual JPY strengthening | Long-term USD/JPY downside bias |
| Carry trade unwind | USD/JPY rapid drop | High risk โ manage position size |